The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.
Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a
monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a
predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth
and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.
| Metric | xgboost | cnn | naive | lstm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mae | 0.069 | 0.071 | 0.089 | 0.073 |
| cor | 0.907 | 0.905 | 0.874 | 0.901 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.894 | 0.916 | 0.845 | 0.957 |
| KGE | 0.860 | 0.879 | 0.756 | 0.875 |
| amplitude_mae | 0.146 | 0.130 | 0.226 | 0.127 |
| maximum_difference | 5.269 | 5.129 | 5.258 | 5.055 |
| sign_correlation | 0.623 | 0.592 | 0.622 | 0.620 |
| extreme_correlation | 0.567 | 0.643 | 0.487 | 0.632 |
| amount_rainy_hours_mae | 1.616 | 1.632 | 2.819 | 1.584 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.019 | 0.013 | 0.041 | 0.011 |
| acf_mae | 0.087 | 0.064 | 0.117 | 0.048 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.058 | 0.029 | 0.089 | 0.029 |
Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail
extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at
the same time. We are using quant = .97