The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm
mae 0.069 0.071 0.089 0.073
cor 0.907 0.905 0.874 0.901
ratio_of_sd 0.894 0.916 0.845 0.957
KGE 0.860 0.879 0.756 0.875
amplitude_mae 0.146 0.130 0.226 0.127
maximum_difference 5.269 5.129 5.258 5.055
sign_correlation 0.623 0.592 0.622 0.620
extreme_correlation 0.567 0.643 0.487 0.632
amount_rainy_hours_mae 1.616 1.632 2.819 1.584
qqplot_mae 0.019 0.013 0.041 0.011
acf_mae 0.087 0.064 0.117 0.048
extremogram_mae 0.058 0.029 0.089 0.029

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97